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Worked examples

Profile: Coefficient 2.6, typical pool ~35 manaNeutral day [3, 3, 3]:
TaskrelativeCostDurationAxisCost
Taking medication0.31 min1.00.4
Brushing teeth1.02 min1.02.6
Getting dressed2.35 min1.015
Shower1.010 min1.013
Light cooking1.520 min1.039
Typical day total is ~31 mana, leaving a small margin. Light cooking exceeds pool and is not surfaced.Rough day [2, 2, 2]: axis factor ~1.25
TaskNeutralRough dayChange
Brushing teeth2.63.3+25%
Getting dressed1519+25%
Shower1316+25%
Essentials remain visible even if over pool.
Profile: Coefficient 4.0, typical pool ~17 mana
TaskrelativeCostDurationCost
Taking medication0.31 min0.6
Sitting up in bed0.315 min9
Brushing teeth1.02 min4
Brief phone call0.85 min8
Meds + sitting up + teeth = 13.6 mana. Phone call generally does not fit unless something else is skipped.
Coefficient improves from 2.6 to 2.0. Stored relativeCost remains valid; no task backfill required.
CaseFormulaResult
Shower before1.0 x 10 x 2.6 x 1.0 x 0.513 mana
Shower after1.0 x 10 x 2.0 x 1.0 x 0.510 mana
Pre-absence: coefficient 2.6, confidence 0.8, pool ~35.Day 1 back (rough check-in):
  • Confidence modifier: 0.8 x 0.85 = 0.68
  • Bias: 0.80 + 0.68 x 0.17 = 0.916
  • Pool shown: 35 x 0.916 ~= 32
Day 2 back:
  • Confidence modifier: 0.8 x 0.95 = 0.76
Day 3 back:
  • Confidence restored to pre-absence level.